x events complexity overload and the collapse of everything

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X Events

Author : John L. Casti
ISBN : 9780062088307
Genre : Science
File Size : 57. 49 MB
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“I am an assiduous reader of John Casti’s books. He is a real scientific intellectual.” —Nassim Nicholas Taleb, New York Times bestselling author of Fooled by Randomness “Casti is at his best in presenting difficult philosophical ideas enthusiastically and lucidly, and in presenting everyday examples to illustrate them.” —New York Times Book Review In his highly provocative and grippingly readable book, X-Events, author John Casti brilliantly argues that today’s advanced, overly complex societies have grown highly vulnerable to extreme events that will ultimately topple civilization like a house of cards. Like Nassim Taleb’s The Black Swan meets Jared Diamond’s Collapse, Casti’s book provides a much-needed wake-up call—sounding a fascinating and frightening warning about civilized society’s inability to recover from a global catastrophe— demonstrating how humankind could be blasted back into the Stone Age by a meteor strike, nuclear apocalypse, worldwide contagion, or any number of unforeseeable X-Events.

Applications Of Systems Thinking And Soft Operations Research In Managing Complexity

Author : Anthony J. Masys
ISBN : 9783319211060
Genre : Science
File Size : 39. 90 MB
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This book captures current trends and developments in the field of systems thinking and soft operations research which can be applied to solve today's problems of dynamic complexity and interdependency. Such ‘wicked problems’ and messes are seemingly intractable problems characterized as value-laden, ambiguous, and unstable, that resist being tamed by classical problem solving. Actions and interventions associated with this complex problem space can have highly unpredictable and unintended consequences. Examples of such complex problems include health care reform, global climate change, transnational serious and organized crime, terrorism, homeland security, human security, disaster management, and humanitarian aid. Moving towards the development of solutions to these complex problem spaces depends on the lens we use to examine them and how we frame the problem. It will be shown that systems thinking and soft operations research has had great success in contributing to the management of complexity.

Network Theory And Violent Conflicts

Author : Christian R. Kramer
ISBN : 9783319413938
Genre : Political Science
File Size : 20. 15 MB
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This book offers a novel approach to understanding violence and violent conflict using complexity and network theories, borrowed from the natural sciences, together with social network analysis. Because violence is both a universal and central component of human communication and identity formation, it has a fundamental function in shaping social behavior. Using Manuel Castells’ work on the programming of social networks, this book explores the Lebanese Civil War and the ongoing war in Afghanistan under the perspective of violence within networks. The approach presents a unique and compelling argument that counters the long-held assumption that war is caused by specific events, or is the unavoidable culmination of existing conditions or grievances. Rather, this book argues that violence emerges when the structure of social networks becomes too rigid and hierarchic to adapt to stresses and challenges that materialize on a constant basis from both within and without the network. This is important not only for the study of war, but as a method of improving the success of contemporary peace building efforts.

The President Had Ninety Seconds

Author : Dr. Dave Felsburg
ISBN : 9781512715552
Genre : Fiction
File Size : 82. 86 MB
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The President Had Ninety Seconds: A Thermonuclear Holocaust Awaited is a fictional account of actual events set toward the end of the Cold War era. The US and the USSR had completed the largest buildups of nuclear weaponry in history. While the US was the only nation in history to have used nuclear weapons against an enemy, all the nations on earth feared a repeat of the massive destruction, loss of life, and long-term results of the release of atomic bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, Japan, to end World War II. Nevertheless, the missile warning systems deep within the granite caverns of NORAD’s Cheyenne Mountain complex rang out its alarms four times between November 1979 and June 1980. Each alarm announced missile attacks on the US more than a thousand times greater than the earlier attacks on Japan. As the warning systems projected the location and time of impact for each of the 250 nuclear missiles launched against us, the president’s missile warning telecon was convened. With only a few minutes left before the missiles began to strike, NORAD’s senior director recapped the situation for the president. Once the missiles began to hit; no capability would remain for nuclear retaliation. Our nuclear strike force would be eliminated while still on the ground. The senior director announced over the telecon, “Mr. President, we now have ninety seconds to approve nuclear retaliation, or our arsenal will be destroyed on the ground.” The President Had Ninety Seconds: A Thermonuclear Holocaust Awaited.

The Science Of Innovation

Author : Karsten Löhr
ISBN : 9783110343809
Genre : Technology & Engineering
File Size : 74. 23 MB
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Each chapter of this book introduces practical methods for self-experience and finishes with shortcut rules and exercises. A major part of the book deals with different ways of scientific invention by problem solving, research, prognosis, and fantasy. At the end of each chapter, a digest of the content is given.

Wounded Eagle

Author : Dr. Dave Felsburg
ISBN : 9781512767414
Genre : Fiction
File Size : 21. 50 MB
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“Wounded Eagle” is a fictional account of actual events that took place during the US-USSR Cold War of the late 1970’s. The title was a top secret code word used to describe situations which reduced or eliminated advance warning of an aircraft attack on the US Capital. Such warnings are provided based on a network of long range radar sensors deployed on or near the US coastline. Digital data from these sensors are combined and integrated into overall aircraft status pictures covering hundreds of miles over the ocean and an equal distance inland. The FAA and NORAD use these data jointly for real-time air route traffic control and early warning of intrusion or attack of the homeland. The Fort Lee AFS Direction Center in central Virginia provided data to NORAD to accomplish those functions for the Mid-Atlantic States including Washington, DC. At 0430 hours (EDT) on Monday, 8 August 1977, the NORAD Command Post within the Cheyenne Mountain Complex was notified that an air conditioning failure in the Fort Lee AFS Direction Center had caused severe damage to their air defense computers. The loss of all data from Fort Lee forced the NORAD Command Director to declare “Wounded Eagle.”

Mood Matters

Author : John L Casti
ISBN : 3642423221
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 46. 13 MB
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"Mood Matters" makes the radical assertion that all social events ranging from fashions in music and art to the rise and fall of civilizations are biased by the attitudes a society holds toward the future. When the "social mood" is positive and people look forward to the future, events of an entirely different character tend to occur than when society is pessimistic. The book presents many examples from every walk of life in support of this argument. In addition, methods are given to actually measure the social mood and to project it into the future in order to forecast what’s likely or not over varying periods of time. Casti's writing is a pleasure to read and its contents an eye-opener. "They [the chapters] tell an engrossing story, and the mystery heightens as it goes. . . . it's chatty and knowing." Greg Benford, Physicist and science-fiction writer, author of "Timescape" and "Deep Time" "I am struck by how thought-provoking it all is. I am sure that your book will draw a lot of attention" Tor Norretranders, Science writer, author of "The Generous Man" and "The User Illusion".

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