the signal and the noise in 30 minutes

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The Signal And The Noise In 30 Minutes

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ISBN : 9781623150532
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 21. 28 MB
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The Signal and the Noise …in 30 Minutes is the essential guide to quickly understanding the fundamental components of prediction outlined in Nate Silver’s bestselling book, The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail ¬– but Some Don’t. In The Signal and the Noise bestselling author, political analyst, and statistician Nate Silver investigates the fundamentals of forecasting and answers why too much information can be misleading. Exploring a variety of fields, ranging from politics to poker to Wall Street and global warming, Silver explores why some forecasts are successful and, perhaps more telling, why so many fail. Stressing the importance of acknowledging personal bias, Silver posits that better forecasters possess a superior understanding of uncertainty and are driven by truth and humility while overconfidence can lead to failure. Presenting a framework for what constitutes a good forecast, Silver provides insight and tools for understanding how to successfully utilize Big Data and decipher meaningful signals from random noise.

The Signal And The Noise In 30 Minutes The Expert Guide To Nate Silver S Critically Acclaimed Book The 30 Minute Expert Series

Author : The 30 Minute Expert Series
ISBN : 162315121X
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 66. 48 MB
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For a complete understanding of Nate Silver's Signal and the Noise, we strongly encourage you to purchase the original book titled The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail--But Some Don't by Penguin Publishing Big data has arrived! Whether you're using that data to make a billion-dollar decision to merge two companies or to choose a team to win the World Series, how do you distinguish the signal (the truth) from the noise (our all-too-human impulse to make choices based on personal bias)? In his groundbreaking work The Signal and the Noise, Nate Silver brings the complexities of statistics down to earth by using real-life examples of how we all make predictions and why those predictions are often wrong. The Signal and the Noise in 30 Minutes is your expert guide to Nate Silver's main thesis that our decision making is filtered through our personal assumptions and beliefs as opposed to the truth of the data at hand. This concise companion details: * Nate Silver's journey from forecasting Major League Baseball players' performance to predicting the outcome of U.S. presidential elections * Both praise for and critical reactions to his ideas from such noted sources as the New York Review of Books and the Wall Street Journal * Key concepts, including analyzing prediction failures, practicing Bayesian thinking, and expanding self-awareness * Key terms, such as Bayes's theorem, with easy-to-understand definitions and examples * Recommended readings and a bibliography listing additional resources analyzing Silver's work and the phenomenon of big data The Signal and the Noise in 30 Minutes is a timely guide to a topic that affects all our lives. From choosing stocks, to predicting wars, to making personal changes in light of climate change, The Signal and the Noise challenges both nations and individuals to make smarter choices. About the 30 Minute Expert Series Offering a concise exploration of a book's ideas, history, application, and critical reception, the 30 Minute Expert Series is designed for busy individuals interested in acquiring an in-depth understanding of seminal works. More than just a summary, the 30 Minute Expert Series offers detailed analysis, critical presentation of key ideas and their application, extensive reading lists for additional information, and a contextual understanding of the work of leading authors. Designed as a companion to the original work, the 30 Minute Expert Series enables readers to develop expert knowledge of an important work ... in 30 minutes.

The Signal And The Noise

Author : Nate Silver
ISBN : 9781101595954
Genre : Political Science
File Size : 47. 85 MB
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One of Wall Street Journal's Best Ten Works of Nonfiction in 2012 New York Times Bestseller “Not so different in spirit from the way public intellectuals like John Kenneth Galbraith once shaped discussions of economic policy and public figures like Walter Cronkite helped sway opinion on the Vietnam War…could turn out to be one of the more momentous books of the decade.” —New York Times Book Review "Nate Silver's The Signal and the Noise is The Soul of a New Machine for the 21st century." —Rachel Maddow, author of Drift "A serious treatise about the craft of prediction—without academic mathematics—cheerily aimed at lay readers. Silver's coverage is polymathic, ranging from poker and earthquakes to climate change and terrorism." —New York Review of Books Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger—all by the time he was thirty. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.com. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the “prediction paradox”: The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future. In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good—or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary—and dangerous—science. Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise. With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver’s insights are an essential read. From the Trade Paperback edition.

Signal To Noise

Author : Silvia Moreno-Garcia
ISBN : 1781082995
Genre : Fiction
File Size : 56. 20 MB
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A literary fantasy about love, music and sorcery, set against the background of Mexico City. Mexico City, 1988: Long before iTunes or MP3s, you said “I love you” with a mixtape. Meche, awkward and fifteen, has two equally unhip friends -- Sebastian and Daniela -- and a whole lot of vinyl records to keep her company. When she discovers how to cast spells using music, the future looks brighter for the trio. With help from this newfound magic, the three friends will piece together their broken families, change their status as non-entities, and maybe even find love... Mexico City, 2009: Two decades after abandoning the metropolis, Meche returns for her estranged father’s funeral. It’s hard enough to cope with her family, but then she runs into Sebastian, and it revives memories from her childhood she thought she buried a long time ago. What really happened back then? What precipitated the bitter falling out with her father? And, is there any magic left?

Summary Outliers In 30 Minutes A Concise Summary Of Malcolm Gladwell S Bestselling Book

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ISBN : 1623150361
Genre : Psychology
File Size : 40. 88 MB
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Outliers ...in 30 minutes is the essential guide to quickly understanding the ideas explored in Malcolm Gladwell's bestselling book, Outliers: The Story of Success. Understand the key ideas behind Outliers in a fraction of the time: • 27 essential insights and takeaways • 11 illustrative case studies • 9 chapter-by-chapter synopses In Outliers, bestselling author Malcolm Gladwell examines the fundamentals of extraordinary success and the people who achieve it. Claiming that society pays too much attention to characteristics like intelligence and ambition in successful people and not enough to the circumstances that shape them, Gladwell argues that external forces also propel the highly successful. As demonstrated in Outliers, culture, family, demographics, chance circumstances, and hidden advantages can have as much, or more, to do with an outlier's success as IQ or drive. Throughout Outliers, Gladwell uses compelling research and fascinating case studies to demonstrate his assertion that nobody achieves success on his or her own merits. A 30 Minute Expert Summary of Outliers Designed for those whose desire to learn exceeds the time they have available, the Outliers summary helps readers quickly and easily become experts ...in 30 minutes.

Paul Revere S Ride

Author : Henry Wadsworth Longfellow
ISBN : 9780688165529
Genre : Juvenile Nonfiction
File Size : 37. 24 MB
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Longfellow's classic poem of this historic ride is brought to life through animated illustrations capturing the emotions of the period when the British militia arrived in Boston Harbor, which led to the start of the American Revolution.

The Hormone Cure

Author : Sara Gottfried
ISBN : 9781451666960
Genre : Health & Fitness
File Size : 43. 69 MB
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ALL TOO OFTEN WOMEN ARE TOLD that feeling moody, asexual, tapped out, dried up, stressed out, and sleep deprived is just a part of being female. Or they’re led to believe that the answer can be found only at the bottom of a bottle of prescription pills. Dr. Sara Gottfried, a Harvard-educated physician and nationally recognized, board-certified gynecologist, refuses to accept that being a woman means feeling overwhelmed or that popping pills is the new normal. In The Hormone Cure, she shares the unique hormone-balancing program that she has used to help thousands of women reclaim wellness, verve, and optimal health. Combining natural therapies with rigorous scientific testing and using an informative questionnaire to identify the common causes of hormonal imbalance, Dr. Gottfried provides an individualized plan in nonjudgmental and thoughtful language. Based on ten years’ study of cutting-edge medical research as a specialist in functional and integrative therapies, Dr. Gottfried’s three-tiered treatment strategy includes: •Supplements and targeted lifestyle changes that address underlying deficiencies •Herbal therapies that restore balance and optimize your body’s natural function • Bioidentical hormones— most available without a prescription The Hormone Cure is a groundbreaking book that demonstrates how balancing your hormones can cure underlying health issues and result in restored sleep, greater energy, improved mood, easy weight loss, increased productivity, and many more benefits. Dr. Sara Gottfried’s The Hormone Cure will transform your life.

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